Record
The record
Formal leans only. 1-1 so far. Every loss is listed below.
This covers every game in a published FOOFIGHTER slate from Oct 6, 2026 to Oct 8, 2026: 21 games, 2 formal leans, 4 honest passes, 15 context-only.
Only formal leans are graded: a lean wins if that team wins the game. Honest passes (edge below the bar) and context-only games (NBA preseason, leagues with no model) are excluded from the W-L. A lean that gets withdrawn before the game is marked withdrawn, not graded.
Small sample warning: 2 graded leans tells you almost nothing about long-run accuracy. This page exists so the record is public from day one, losses included.
Transparency notePreseason games a post called picks
Heads up on Oct 6, 2026: our X post for that night labeled the Nuggets and the Hornets as "Top Picks" (the card said LEANS). Those were NBA preseason games, and the record rules exclude preseason, so they are not in the W-L.
Nuggets (Nuggets vs Jazz): post said model 63.4% vs market 50.5¢ (+12.9¢). The Nuggets won 117-106, so that side hit.
Hornets (Nets vs Hornets): post said model 74.8% vs market 65.5¢ (+9.3¢). The Hornets lost 90-124, so that side missed.
Counted, those labels would be 1-1, and the overall record would read 2-2 instead of 1-1. They stay out because the preseason rule applies to every preseason game, whatever the result.
One more fact for completeness: the morning update post before tip-off dropped the Hornets lean after late scratches. The 1-1 above counts the original labels anyway.
- Nuggets (labeled Top Pick): Nuggets vs JazzExcludedHitDEN 117, UTAH 106Oct 6, 2026 · NBA preseason · post: model 63.4% vs 50.5¢
- Hornets (labeled Top Pick): Nets vs HornetsExcludedMissBKN 124, CHA 90Oct 6, 2026 · NBA preseason · post: model 74.8% vs 65.5¢
SplitBy league
SplitBy month
| Month | W | L | Hit rate | Avg edge vs ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 1 | 1 | 50% | +8.4¢ |
Every lossLosses
- Dodgers vs Braves: Braves leanMissLAD 4, ATL 1Oct 7, 2026 · NLDS Game 4 · model 51.5% vs ask 42¢ (+9.5¢)
LedgerAll graded leans
| Date | Game | Lean | Model | Ask | Edge vs ask | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Dodgers vs Braves | Braves | 51.5% | 42¢ | +9.5¢ | LAD 4, ATL 1 | Miss |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Rays vs Yankees | Rays | 47.4% | 40¢ | +7.4¢ | TB 4, NYY 3 | Hit |
ExcludedNot in the W-L
Listed for transparency with their finals. None of these count toward the record.
- Dodgers vs BravesHonest passLAD 3, ATL 1MLB · Oct 6, 2026 · NLDS Game 3 · Braves model 52.5% vs 50.5¢, +1.5¢ at ask
- Nets vs HornetsContext onlyBKN 124, CHA 90NBA · Oct 6, 2026 · Preseason
- Pelicans vs ThunderContext onlyNO 116, OKC 110NBA · Oct 6, 2026 · Preseason
- Nuggets vs JazzContext onlyDEN 117, UTAH 106NBA · Oct 6, 2026 · Preseason
- Brewers vs PadresHonest passMIL 3, SD 4MLB · Oct 6, 2026 · NLDS Game 3 · Brewers model 45.7% vs 44.5¢, +0.7¢ at ask
- Lakers vs WarriorsContext onlyLAL 98, GS 124NBA · Oct 6, 2026 · Preseason
- Guardians vs White SoxHonest passCLE 9, CHW 3MLB · Oct 7, 2026 · ALDS Game 3 · White Sox model 53.6% vs 51.5¢, +1.6¢ at ask
- Timberwolves vs PacersContext onlyMIN 112, IND 123NBA · Oct 7, 2026 · Preseason
- Bucks vs ThunderContext onlyMIL 128, OKC 126NBA · Oct 7, 2026 · Preseason
- Magic vs GrizzliesContext onlyORL 122, MEM 118NBA · Oct 7, 2026 · Preseason
- Suns vs BullsContext onlyPHX 117, CHI 124NBA · Oct 7, 2026 · Preseason
- Brewers vs PadresHonest passMIL 3, SD 1MLB · Oct 7, 2026 · NLDS Game 4 · Padres model 52.1% vs 50.5¢, +1.1¢ at ask
- Warriors vs Trail BlazersContext onlyGS 118, POR 123NBA · Oct 7, 2026 · Preseason
- Celtics vs CavaliersContext onlyNBA · Oct 8, 2026 · Preseason
- Pelicans vs HeatContext onlyNBA · Oct 8, 2026 · Preseason
- 76ers vs NetsContext onlyNBA · Oct 8, 2026 · Preseason
- Wizards vs KnicksContext onlyNBA · Oct 8, 2026 · Preseason
- Hawks vs SpursContext onlyNBA · Oct 8, 2026 · Preseason
- Kings vs LakersContext onlyNBA · Oct 8, 2026 · Preseason
Follow the daily log
Model vs Polymarket numbers before the games, graded results after. Losses included.
Follow @0xDune0104 on XHow the model works
Probability vs the Polymarket ask, the bar for a lean, and why a pass stays off the record.
Read the methodologyNot financial or betting advice. This is model output shared for information and entertainment. Prediction markets and sports betting carry real risk of loss. 21+ only (or the legal age where you live), check your local laws, and play responsibly. If gambling stops being fun, get help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (US).