NBA · Preseason
Raptors vs Knicks Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 15, 2026)
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 38.2% | 35.5¢ | 36¢ | +2.7¢ | +2.2¢ | 35.5% |
| New York Knicks | 61.8% | 64.5¢ | 65¢ | -2.7¢ | -3.2¢ | 64.5% |
Snapshot: Oct 16, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
A preseason game puts the Raptors at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, scheduled for 7:30 PM EDT (07:30 on Oct 16, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 2-1 for the Raptors and 0-4 for the Knicks.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Raptors at 35.5¢ and the Knicks at 64.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Raptors at 38.2%, which would read as +2.2¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $104K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 16, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Raptors went 46-36 with a +2.8 net rating (114.0 offense, 111.2 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark; the Knicks went 53-29 with a +6.4 net rating (117.8 offense, 111.4 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Knicks by 5.8 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Apr 10, 2026, Raptors lost scoring 95; Mar 3, 2026, Raptors lost scoring 95; Jan 28, 2026, Raptors lost scoring 92.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksWhat the books say
The DraftKings line was NY -6.5 with the total at 226.5, which de-vigs to 35.5% on the Raptors.
The model sits 2.6 points above the no-vig book number on the Raptors.
AvailabilityAvailability report
Nothing recent or Out-status on ESPN's injury feed for either side at snapshot time.
We left out 1 older ESPN note that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +2.2¢ on the Raptors is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
Our first snapshot (Oct 15, 2026, 21:17 UTC+8) had the Raptors at 37.5¢. By the last pregame snapshot (Oct 16, 2026, 06:40) they were at 35.5¢.
DraftKings went from NY -4.5 to NY -6.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-15