NBA · Preseason
Spurs vs Suns Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 10, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Spurs 98, Suns 102
Not graded (context only). The Suns were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 53.0% | 67.5¢ | 68¢ | -14.5¢ | -15.0¢ | 67.5% |
| Phoenix Suns | 47.0% | 32.5¢ | 33¢ | +14.5¢ | +14.0¢ | 32.5% |
Snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
A preseason game puts the Spurs at Mortgage Matchup Center against the Suns, scheduled for 10:30 PM EDT (10:30 on Oct 11, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 0-1 for the Spurs and 0-2 for the Suns.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Spurs at 67.5¢ and the Suns at 32.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Suns at 47.0%, which would read as +14.0¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $43K when we pulled the book (Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Spurs went 62-20 with a +8.2 net rating (117.7 offense, 109.6 defense) and a 8-2 last-10 mark; the Suns went 45-37 with a +1.5 net rating (112.9 offense, 111.4 defense) and a 5-5 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Spurs by 1.5 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.
BooksSportsbook check
DraftKings had SA -7.5 with the total at 223.5. Strip the vig and that's 32.5% for the Suns.
So the model is 14.5 points higher on the Suns than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.
AvailabilityAvailability report
On the Suns side, ESPN listed Mark Williams (shoulder, out).
On the Spurs side, ESPN listed Jayden Quaintance (knee, out) and De'Aaron Fox (undisclosed, day-to-day).
We left out 3 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictBottom line
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +14.0¢ on the Suns is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Suns price held at 32.5¢ between our Oct 10, 2026, 21:35 and Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 snapshots (UTC+8).
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-10