Canadiens vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 25, 2026)

SetupThe setup

Heritage Classic puts the Canadiens at Princess Auto Stadium against the Jets, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 26, UTC+8).

Records: Canadiens 5-3-2, Jets 4-3-3.

Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree

The model has the Jets at 47.3%. Polymarket priced them at 46.5¢ at the mid, with the best ask at 47¢. That's +0.8¢ of edge at the mid and +0.3¢ at the ask, and the ask is the number that matters because it's what you would actually pay.

For the Canadiens it's the mirror image: 52.7% on the model vs 53.5¢ on the market.

Liquidity on the market was about $162K when we pulled the book (Oct 25, 2026, 21:57 UTC+8). The bar for an NHL lean is 3.0¢ at the ask.

MatchupInputs

First-listed goalies on ESPN: Jakub Dobes for the Canadiens and Stuart Skinner for the Jets. That listing is not a confirmation.

BooksSportsbook check

The DraftKings line was MTL -122 with the total at 5.5, which de-vigs to 47.4% on the Jets.

Model and sportsbooks land within a point or so of each other here.

AvailabilityWho's in, who's out

ESPN's injury report for the Canadiens: Nick Suzuki (upper body, out).

ESPN's injury report for the Jets: Nick Bjugstad (pectoral, injured reserve) and Vladislav Namestnikov (undisclosed, injured reserve).

We left out 1 older ESPN note that referred to a different game day.

VerdictBottom line

No lean. The best the model could find was +0.3¢ on the Jets at the ask, short of the 3.0¢ needed. Passing on thin edges is part of the process, not a dodge.