Lightning vs Avalanche Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 23, 2026)

SetupThe setup

Lightning vs Avalanche is a regular-season game, played at Ball Arena with tip-off at 9:00 PM EDT (09:00 on Oct 24, UTC+8).

Records: Lightning 7-2-0, Avalanche 5-4-1.

Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree

On our numbers the Lightning win this 46.7% of the time. The market said 46.5¢ at the mid and 47¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +0.2¢ vs the mid and -0.3¢ vs the ask.

The other side, the Avalanche, traded at 53.5¢ against a model number of 53.3%.

The market had roughly $189K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 23, 2026, 21:55 UTC+8). NHL leans need at least 3.0¢ of edge at the ask.

MatchupInputs

First-listed goalies on ESPN: Andrei Vasilevskiy for the Lightning and Mackenzie Blackwood for the Avalanche. That listing is not a confirmation.

BooksSportsbook check

DraftKings had COL -125 with the total at 6.5. Strip the vig and that's 46.8% for the Lightning.

The model and the books are basically in the same place on this one.

AvailabilityInjuries and availability

On the Avalanche side, ESPN listed Zachary L'Heureux (upper body, out) and Nicolas Roy (lower body, out).

ESPN's injury report for the Lightning: Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed, day-to-day).

VerdictThe call

Honest pass. The Lightning were the better side on the model, but -0.3¢ at the ask is under the 3.0¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.