NBA · Preseason
Timberwolves vs Pacers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 7, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Timberwolves 112, Pacers 123
Not graded (context only). The Timberwolves were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 65.9% | 56.5¢ | 57¢ | +9.4¢ | +8.9¢ | 55.1% |
| Indiana Pacers | 34.1% | 43.5¢ | 44¢ | -9.4¢ | -9.9¢ | 44.9% |
Snapshot: Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
A preseason game puts the Timberwolves on a neutral floor at Hilton Coliseum against the Pacers, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 8, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 1-0 for the Timberwolves and 0-0 for the Pacers.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
Polymarket had the Timberwolves at 56.5¢ and the Pacers at 43.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Timberwolves at 65.9%, which would read as +8.9¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $74K when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8).
MatchupWhat the model sees
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Timberwolves went 49-33 with a +3.3 net rating (115.2 offense, 112.0 defense) and a 5-5 last-10 mark; the Pacers went 19-63 with a -7.8 net rating (109.4 offense, 117.2 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark.
The projected margin comes out to Timberwolves by 7.9 with no home-court bump since it's a neutral site.
Most recent meetings in the data: Apr 7, 2026, Timberwolves won scoring 124; Oct 26, 2025, Timberwolves won scoring 114.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksSportsbook check
Over at DraftKings it was MIN -2.5 with the total at 237.5. No-vig, the Timberwolves come out at 55.1%.
So the model is 10.8 points higher on the Timberwolves than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.
AvailabilityAvailability report
On the Pacers side, ESPN listed Johnny Furphy (knee, out).
ESPN's injury report for the Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo (achilles, out).
We left out 3 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictLean, pass, or context?
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +8.9¢ on the Timberwolves is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Timberwolves price moved from 63.5¢ to 56.5¢ between our Oct 7, 2026, 21:46 and Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from MIN -6.5 to MIN -2.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-07