MLB · ALDS Game 3
Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 7, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Rays 4, Yankees 3
The lean hit. The Rays won 4-3.
That's one result. A single win doesn't prove the edge was real, the same way a loss wouldn't disprove it. The record page tracks the long run.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays lean | 47.4% | 39.5¢ | 40¢ | +7.9¢ | +7.4¢ | 39.2% |
| New York Yankees | 52.6% | 60.5¢ | 61¢ | -7.9¢ | -8.4¢ | 60.8% |
Snapshot: Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupWhat this game is
Rays vs Yankees is ALDS Game 3, played at Yankee Stadium with first pitch at 8:00 PM EDT (08:00 on Oct 8, UTC+8).
Series state: Rays 2, Yankees 0. Division Series are best-of-five, so the Rays can close it out here and the Yankees are playing to stay alive. Regular-season records: Rays 98-64, Yankees 93-68.
Model vs marketPrice check
On our numbers the Rays win this 47.4% of the time. The market said 39.5¢ at the mid and 40¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +7.9¢ vs the mid and +7.4¢ vs the ask.
For the Yankees it's the mirror image: 52.6% on the model vs 60.5¢ on the market.
Liquidity on the market was about $1.31M when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8). MLB leans need at least 1.8¢ of edge at the ask.
MatchupStarting pitchers
It's Nick Martinez vs Max Fried. By ERA that's 3.10 against 2.80. On ERA alone the Yankees have the better starter by 0.30 runs.
The pitcher adjustment in the model is worth roughly 0.7 points, in favor of the Yankees.
Worth knowing: the MLB model adjusts for the probable starters, but it does not read the posted lineup card.
BooksWhat the books say
The DraftKings line was NYY -174 with the total at 7, which de-vigs to 39.2% on the Rays. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Yankees at 63.8% and the Rays at 36.2%.
So the model is 8.2 points higher on the Rays than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.
AvailabilityWho's in, who's out
ESPN's injury report for the Rays: Shane McClanahan (forearm, out).
VerdictThe call
This one made the cut. The Rays side carried +7.4¢ of edge at the ask, which clears the 1.8¢ bar, with enough liquidity to matter. It's graded on the record like every other lean.
To be clear about what kind of lean this is: the sportsbooks sided with Polymarket, so this is the model against the consensus. Set expectations accordingly.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Rays price held at 39.5¢ between our Oct 7, 2026, 21:46 and Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from NYY -164 to NYY -174 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-07