Pelicans vs Heat Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 8, 2026)

SetupMatchup and context

Pelicans vs Heat is a preseason game, played at Kaseya Center with tip-off at 7:30 PM EDT (07:30 on Oct 9, UTC+8).

Preseason records: Pelicans 1-0, Heat 1-0.

Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree

Polymarket had the Pelicans at 26.5¢ and the Heat at 73.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Pelicans at 32.9%, which would read as +5.9¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.

The market had roughly $36K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 21:50 UTC+8).

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Pelicans went 26-56 with a -4.4 net rating (112.5 offense, 116.9 defense) and a 1-9 last-10 mark; the Heat went 43-39 with a +2.2 net rating (115.0 offense, 112.8 defense) and a 5-5 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Heat by 8.6, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.

BooksThe wider market

Over at DraftKings it was MIA -7.5 with the total at 234.5. No-vig, the Pelicans come out at 28.2%.

So the model is 4.7 points higher on the Pelicans than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.

AvailabilityAvailability report

For the Heat, ESPN had Andrew Wiggins (illness, day-to-day) and Keshad Johnson (hamstring, out).

We left out 1 older ESPN note that referred to a different game day.

VerdictLean, pass, or context?

Context only, no pick. Preseason minutes beat ratings, and this model only has ratings. Whatever the Pelicans number says (+5.9¢ at the ask), it isn't graded and shouldn't be read as a play.