NHL
Mammoth vs Kraken Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 22, 2026)
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Mammoth | 59.1% | 62.5¢ | 63¢ | -3.4¢ | -3.9¢ | 60.4% |
| Seattle Kraken best side | 40.9% | 37.5¢ | 38¢ | +3.4¢ | +2.9¢ | 39.6% |
Snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 21:59 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupWhat this game is
A regular-season game puts the Mammoth at Climate Pledge Arena against the Kraken, scheduled for 10:00 PM EDT (10:00 on Oct 23, UTC+8).
Records: Mammoth 7-3-0, Kraken 6-3-1.
Model vs marketPrice check
On our numbers the Kraken win this 40.9% of the time. The market said 37.5¢ at the mid and 38¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +3.4¢ vs the mid and +2.9¢ vs the ask.
For the Mammoth it's the mirror image: 59.1% on the model vs 62.5¢ on the market.
The market had roughly $239K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 22, 2026, 21:59 UTC+8). The bar for an NHL lean is 3.0¢ at the ask.
MatchupInputs
First-listed goalies on ESPN: Karel Vejmelka for the Mammoth and Philipp Grubauer for the Kraken. That listing is not a confirmation.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had UTAH -170 with the total at 6.5. Strip the vig and that's 39.6% for the Kraken.
The model and the books are basically in the same place on this one.
AvailabilityAvailability report
ESPN's injury report for the Mammoth: John Marino (upper body, day-to-day) and Michael Carcone (upper body, injured reserve).
VerdictBottom line
No lean. The best the model could find was +2.9¢ on the Kraken at the ask, short of the 3.0¢ needed. Passing on thin edges is part of the process, not a dodge.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line
- FOOFIGHTER model: no model for this league
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-22