NBA · Preseason
Bulls vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 11, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Bulls 128, Nuggets 133
Not graded (context only). The Nuggets were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 28.1% | 31.5¢ | 32¢ | -3.4¢ | -3.9¢ | 30.4% |
| Denver Nuggets | 71.9% | 68.5¢ | 69¢ | +3.4¢ | +2.9¢ | 69.6% |
Snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
Bulls vs Nuggets is a preseason game, played at Ball Arena with tip-off at 9:00 PM EDT (09:00 on Oct 12, UTC+8).
Preseason records: Bulls 1-1, Nuggets 1-1.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Bulls at 31.5¢ and the Nuggets at 68.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Nuggets at 71.9%. On paper that's +2.9¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $78K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8).
MatchupThe ratings behind the number
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Bulls went 31-51 with a -5.0 net rating (111.5 offense, 116.5 defense) and a 2-8 last-10 mark; the Nuggets went 54-28 with a +5.1 net rating (120.6 offense, 115.5 defense) and a 10-0 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Nuggets by 11.3 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Feb 7, 2026, Bulls lost scoring 120; Nov 17, 2025, Bulls won scoring 130.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksSportsbook check
Over at DraftKings it was DEN -7.5 with the total at 231.5. No-vig, the Nuggets come out at 69.6%.
The model sits 2.4 points above the no-vig book number on the Nuggets.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
Nothing recent or Out-status on ESPN's injury feed for either side at snapshot time.
We left out 6 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Nuggets number (+2.9¢ at the ask) is background only.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Nuggets price moved from 74.5¢ to 68.5¢ between our Oct 11, 2026, 21:39 and Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from DEN -8.5 to DEN -7.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-11