NBA · Preseason
Timberwolves vs Knicks Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 12, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Timberwolves 122, Knicks 104
Not graded (context only). The Knicks were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 38.8% | 53.5¢ | 54¢ | -14.7¢ | -15.2¢ | 51.7% |
| New York Knicks | 61.2% | 46.5¢ | 47¢ | +14.7¢ | +14.2¢ | 48.3% |
Snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 06:44 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
A preseason game puts the Timberwolves at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, scheduled for 7:30 PM EDT (07:30 on Oct 13, UTC+8).
Preseason records: Timberwolves 2-1, Knicks 0-2.
Model vs marketPrice check
Polymarket had the Timberwolves at 53.5¢ and the Knicks at 46.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Knicks at 61.2%, which would read as +14.2¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $82K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 13, 2026, 06:44 UTC+8).
MatchupThe ratings behind the number
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Timberwolves went 49-33 with a +3.3 net rating (115.2 offense, 112.0 defense) and a 5-5 last-10 mark; the Knicks went 53-29 with a +6.4 net rating (117.8 offense, 111.4 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.
The projected margin comes out to Knicks by 5.5, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Dec 23, 2025, Timberwolves won scoring 115; Nov 5, 2025, Timberwolves lost scoring 114.
Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had MIN -1.5 with the total at 227.5. Strip the vig and that's 48.3% for the Knicks.
So the model is 12.9 points higher on the Knicks than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.
AvailabilityWho's in, who's out
ESPN's injury report for the Timberwolves: Donte DiVincenzo (achilles, out).
We left out 6 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +14.2¢ on the Knicks is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Knicks price moved from 55.5¢ to 46.5¢ between our Oct 12, 2026, 21:50 and Oct 13, 2026, 06:44 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from NY -2.5 to MIN -1.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-12