NBA · Preseason
Cavaliers vs Magic Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 13, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Cavaliers 116, Magic 132
Not graded (context only). The Magic were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 47.3% | 55.5¢ | 56¢ | -8.2¢ | -8.7¢ | 52.6% |
| Orlando Magic | 52.7% | 44.5¢ | 45¢ | +8.2¢ | +7.7¢ | 47.4% |
Snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupMatchup and context
A preseason game puts the Cavaliers at Kia Center against the Magic, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 14, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 1-1 for the Cavaliers and 1-1 for the Magic.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
Polymarket had the Cavaliers at 55.5¢ and the Magic at 44.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Magic at 52.7%. On paper that's +7.7¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $107K when we pulled the book (Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Cavaliers went 52-30 with a +4.0 net rating (117.4 offense, 113.3 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark; the Magic went 45-37 with a +0.6 net rating (112.9 offense, 112.3 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Magic by 1.3 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Mar 24, 2026, Cavaliers won scoring 136; Mar 11, 2026, Cavaliers lost scoring 122; Jan 26, 2026, Cavaliers won scoring 114.
Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had CLE -1.5 with the total at 230.5. Strip the vig and that's 47.4% for the Magic.
That leaves the model 5.3 points above the books on the Magic. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
ESPN's injury report for the Cavaliers: Khalifa Diop (knee, day-to-day), Nae'Qwan Tomlin (back, day-to-day), and Sam Merrill (elbow, day-to-day).
For the Magic, ESPN had Izaiyah Nelson (ankle, out), Jonathan Isaac (knee, day-to-day), Anthony Black (ankle, day-to-day), and Nikola Vucevic (rest, day-to-day). 1 of those is a rest day, not an injury.
VerdictThe call
This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Magic number (+7.7¢ at the ask) is background only.
Line movementHow the price moved
Our first snapshot (Oct 13, 2026, 21:07 UTC+8) had the Magic at 48.5¢. By the last pregame snapshot (Oct 14, 2026, 06:41) they were at 44.5¢.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-13