NBA · Preseason
Nets vs Wizards Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 12, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Nets 131, Wizards 122
Not graded (context only). The Nets were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 45.6% | 44¢ | 45¢ | +1.6¢ | +0.6¢ | 44.9% |
| Washington Wizards | 54.4% | 56¢ | 57¢ | -1.6¢ | -2.6¢ | 55.1% |
Snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 06:44 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
A preseason game puts the Nets at Capital One Arena against the Wizards, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 13, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 2-0 for the Nets and 2-0 for the Wizards.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Nets at 44¢ and the Wizards at 56¢. The last-season NBA model put the Nets at 45.6%. On paper that's +0.6¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $82K when we pulled the book (Oct 13, 2026, 06:44 UTC+8).
MatchupThe ratings behind the number
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Nets went 20-62 with a -10.1 net rating (106.8 offense, 116.9 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark; the Wizards went 17-65 with a -11.6 net rating (109.1 offense, 120.6 defense) and a 0-10 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Wizards by 2.1 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Apr 5, 2026, Nets won scoring 121; Feb 7, 2026, Nets won scoring 127; Jan 2, 2026, Nets lost scoring 99.
Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.
BooksThe wider market
Over at DraftKings it was WSH -2.5 with the total at 223.5. No-vig, the Nets come out at 44.9%.
Model and sportsbooks land within a point or so of each other here.
AvailabilityAvailability report
On the Nets side, ESPN listed Mikel Brown Jr. (ankle, day-to-day) and Joshua Jefferson (back, day-to-day).
For the Wizards, ESPN had Jamir Watkins (knee, out), Tristan Vukcevic (hip, out), and Anthony Davis (rest, day-to-day). 1 of those is a rest day, not an injury.
We left out 2 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictBottom line
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +0.6¢ on the Nets is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Nets price moved from 43.5¢ to 44¢ between our Oct 12, 2026, 21:50 and Oct 13, 2026, 06:44 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from WSH -3.5 to WSH -2.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-12