NBA · Preseason
Bulls vs Bucks Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 14, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Bulls 125, Bucks 104
Not graded (context only). The Bucks were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 43.6% | 63.5¢ | 64¢ | -19.9¢ | -20.4¢ | 61.6% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 56.4% | 36.5¢ | 37¢ | +19.9¢ | +19.4¢ | 38.4% |
Snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 06:34 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
The Bulls and the Bucks meet at Fiserv Forum for a preseason game. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM EDT, which is 08:00 on Oct 15 in UTC+8.
Preseason records: Bulls 1-2, Bucks 1-2.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
Polymarket had the Bulls at 63.5¢ and the Bucks at 36.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Bucks at 56.4%, which would read as +19.4¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $61K when we pulled the book (Oct 15, 2026, 06:34 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Bulls went 31-51 with a -5.0 net rating (111.5 offense, 116.5 defense) and a 2-8 last-10 mark; the Bucks went 32-50 with a -6.2 net rating (111.3 offense, 117.5 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark.
The projected margin comes out to Bucks by 3.1, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Mar 1, 2026, Bulls won scoring 120; Feb 3, 2026, Bulls lost scoring 115; Dec 27, 2025, Bulls lost scoring 103.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had CHI -4.5 with the total at 232.5. Strip the vig and that's 38.4% for the Bucks.
That leaves the model 18.1 points above the books on the Bucks. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityWho's in, who's out
For the Bulls, ESPN had Zach Collins (toe, day-to-day).
We left out 6 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictBottom line
Context only, no pick. Preseason minutes beat ratings, and this model only has ratings. Whatever the Bucks number says (+19.4¢ at the ask), it isn't graded and shouldn't be read as a play.
Line movementHow the price moved
Our first snapshot (Oct 14, 2026, 23:34 UTC+8) had the Bucks at 46.5¢. By the last pregame snapshot (Oct 15, 2026, 06:34) they were at 36.5¢.
DraftKings went from CHI -1.5 to CHI -4.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-14