NBA · Preseason
Hawks vs Pacers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 10, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Hawks 119, Pacers 117
Not graded (context only). The Hawks were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 58.0% | 46.5¢ | 47¢ | +11.5¢ | +11.0¢ | 47.4% |
| Indiana Pacers | 42.0% | 53.5¢ | 54¢ | -11.5¢ | -12.0¢ | 52.6% |
Snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
Hawks vs Pacers is a preseason game, played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with tip-off at 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 11, UTC+8).
Preseason records: Hawks 1-1, Pacers 1-0.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Hawks at 46.5¢ and the Pacers at 53.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Hawks at 58.0%. On paper that's +11.0¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $57K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8).
MatchupWhat the model sees
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Hawks went 46-36 with a +2.3 net rating (114.2 offense, 111.9 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark; the Pacers went 19-63 with a -7.8 net rating (109.4 offense, 117.2 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Hawks by 3.9 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Jan 31, 2026, Hawks lost scoring 124; Jan 26, 2026, Hawks won scoring 132; Oct 31, 2025, Hawks won scoring 128.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksThe wider market
Over at DraftKings it was IND -1.5 with the total at 234.5. No-vig, the Hawks come out at 47.4%.
That leaves the model 10.6 points above the books on the Hawks. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
On the Hawks side, ESPN listed Henri Veesaar (knee, out), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (rest, day-to-day), Keshon Gilbert (knee, day-to-day), and Dorian Finney-Smith (rest, day-to-day). 2 of those are rest days, not injuries.
For the Pacers, ESPN had Johnny Furphy (knee, out) and Tyrese Haliburton (ankle, day-to-day).
We left out 3 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
Context only, no pick. Preseason minutes beat ratings, and this model only has ratings. Whatever the Hawks number says (+11.0¢ at the ask), it isn't graded and shouldn't be read as a play.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Hawks price moved from 44.5¢ to 46.5¢ between our Oct 10, 2026, 21:35 and Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from IND -2.5 to IND -1.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-10