Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 28, 2026)

SetupWhat this game is

The Warriors and the Timberwolves meet at Target Center for a regular-season game. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM EDT, which is 08:00 on Oct 29 in UTC+8.

Records: Warriors 1-3, Timberwolves 3-1.

Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket

The model has the Timberwolves at 60.5%. Polymarket priced them at 59.5¢ at the mid, with the best ask at 60¢. That's +1.0¢ of edge at the mid and +0.5¢ at the ask, and the ask is the number that matters because it's what you would actually pay.

The other side, the Warriors, traded at 40.5¢ against a model number of 39.5%.

Liquidity on the market was about $287K when we pulled the book (Oct 28, 2026, 21:23 UTC+8). NBA leans need at least 2.5¢ of edge at the ask.

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2026-27 team ratings. In that data, the Warriors went 1-3 with a -1.0 net rating (113.7 offense, 114.6 defense) and a 1-3 last-10 mark; the Timberwolves went 3-1 with a +5.0 net rating (115.1 offense, 110.1 defense) and a 3-1 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Timberwolves by 8.0, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.

BooksWhat the books say

The DraftKings line was MIN -3.5 with the total at 228.5, which de-vigs to 59.3% on the Timberwolves. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Timberwolves at 74.4% and the Warriors at 25.6%.

The model and the books are basically in the same place on this one.

AvailabilityAvailability report

ESPN's injury report for the Warriors: Jimmy Butler III (knee, out), Moses Moody (knee, out), Kristaps Porzingis (illness, out), and Yaxel Lendeborg (foot, day-to-day).

For the Timberwolves, ESPN had Donte DiVincenzo (achilles, out) and Anthony Edwards (knee, out).

VerdictThe call

We passed. +0.5¢ of executable edge on the Timberwolves isn't enough (the bar is 2.5¢), so this one stays off the record.