NBA · Preseason
Nuggets vs Jazz Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 6, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Nuggets 117, Jazz 106
Not graded (context only). The Nuggets were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Transparency noteLabeled as a pick, excluded from the record
Heads up on Oct 6, 2026: our X post for that night labeled the Nuggets as "Top Picks" (the card said LEANS). That was an NBA preseason game, and the record rules exclude preseason, so it is not in the W-L.
Result: Nuggets won 117-106 (hit). Counting both labeled picks from that post, they would be 1-1. Full note on the record page.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 63.4% | 50.5¢ | 51¢ | +13.0¢ | +12.5¢ | 51.7% |
| Utah Jazz | 36.5% | 49.5¢ | 50¢ | -13.0¢ | -13.5¢ | 48.3% |
Snapshot: Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
A preseason game puts the Nuggets at Delta Center against the Jazz, scheduled for 9:00 PM EDT (09:00 on Oct 7, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 0-1 for the Nuggets and 1-0 for the Jazz.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Nuggets at 50.5¢ and the Jazz at 49.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Nuggets at 63.4%. On paper that's +12.5¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $69K when we pulled the book (Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Nuggets went 54-28 with a +5.1 net rating (120.6 offense, 115.5 defense) and a 10-0 last-10 mark; the Jazz went 22-60 with a -8.1 net rating (112.3 offense, 120.4 defense) and a 1-9 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Nuggets by 6.6 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Apr 1, 2026, Nuggets won scoring 130; Mar 27, 2026, Nuggets won scoring 135; Mar 2, 2026, Nuggets won scoring 128.
Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had DEN -1.5 with the total at 229.5. Strip the vig and that's 51.7% for the Nuggets.
That leaves the model 11.7 points above the books on the Nuggets. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
For the Jazz, ESPN had Kyle Filipowski (back, day-to-day).
We left out 5 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +12.5¢ on the Nuggets is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Nuggets price held at 50.5¢ between our Oct 6, 2026, 21:47 and Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 snapshots (UTC+8).
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware