NBA · Preseason
Lakers vs Warriors Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 6, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Lakers 98, Warriors 124
Not graded (context only). The Lakers were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 48.7% | 38.5¢ | 39¢ | +10.2¢ | +9.7¢ | 38.4% |
| Golden State Warriors | 51.3% | 61.5¢ | 62¢ | -10.2¢ | -10.7¢ | 61.6% |
Snapshot: Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
Lakers vs Warriors is a preseason game, played at Chase Center with tip-off at 10:00 PM EDT (10:00 on Oct 7, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 1-0 for the Lakers and 0-1 for the Warriors.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Lakers at 38.5¢ and the Warriors at 61.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Lakers at 48.7%. On paper that's +9.7¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $44K when we pulled the book (Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8).
MatchupThe ratings behind the number
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Lakers went 53-29 with a +1.8 net rating (117.0 offense, 115.2 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark; the Warriors went 37-45 with a -0.6 net rating (112.9 offense, 113.4 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Warriors by 0.6 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Apr 9, 2026, Lakers won scoring 119; Feb 28, 2026, Lakers won scoring 129; Feb 7, 2026, Lakers won scoring 105.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksWhat the books say
Over at DraftKings it was GS -4.5 with the total at 220.5. No-vig, the Lakers come out at 38.4%.
That leaves the model 10.4 points above the books on the Lakers. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityAvailability report
For the Warriors, ESPN had Moses Moody (knee, out), Jimmy Butler III (knee, out), and Kristaps Porzingis (undisclosed, day-to-day).
We left out 4 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Lakers number (+9.7¢ at the ask) is background only.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Lakers price moved from 41¢ to 38.5¢ between our Oct 6, 2026, 21:47 and Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from GS -3.5 to GS -4.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware