Celtics vs 76ers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 16, 2026)

SetupWhat this game is

The Celtics and the 76ers meet at Xfinity Mobile Arena for a preseason game. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM EDT, which is 07:00 on Oct 17 in UTC+8.

Preseason records coming in were 3-0 for the Celtics and 1-2 for the 76ers.

Model vs marketPrice check

Polymarket had the Celtics at 33.5¢ and the 76ers at 66.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Celtics at 53.3%. On paper that's +19.3¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.

The market had roughly $38K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 16, 2026, 21:20 UTC+8).

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Celtics went 56-26 with a +7.9 net rating (117.7 offense, 109.8 defense) and a 8-2 last-10 mark; the 76ers went 45-37 with a -0.2 net rating (113.6 offense, 113.7 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Celtics by 1.6, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

Most recent meetings in the data: May 2, 2026, Celtics lost scoring 100; Apr 30, 2026, Celtics lost scoring 93; Apr 28, 2026, Celtics lost scoring 97.

Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.

BooksSportsbook check

DraftKings had PHI -5.5 with the total at 223.5. Strip the vig and that's 34.2% for the Celtics.

So the model is 19.1 points higher on the Celtics than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.

AvailabilityAvailability report

For the 76ers, ESPN had Ariel Hukporti (achilles, out), Adem Bona (foot, day-to-day), and Anfernee Simons (hamstring, day-to-day).

We left out 2 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.

VerdictLean, pass, or context?

This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Celtics number (+19.3¢ at the ask) is background only.