Maple Leafs vs Oilers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 24, 2026)

SetupThe setup

The Maple Leafs and the Oilers meet at Rogers Place for a regular-season game. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM EDT, which is 07:00 on Oct 25 in UTC+8.

Records coming in were 6-4-2 for the Maple Leafs and 8-1-1 for the Oilers.

Model vs marketPrice check

On our numbers the Maple Leafs win this 38.7% of the time. The market said 38.5¢ at the mid and 39¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +0.2¢ vs the mid and -0.3¢ vs the ask.

For the Oilers it's the mirror image: 61.4% on the model vs 61.5¢ on the market.

Liquidity on the market was about $239K when we pulled the book (Oct 24, 2026, 22:01 UTC+8). The bar for an NHL lean is 3.0¢ at the ask.

MatchupInputs

First-listed goalies on ESPN: Sergei Bobrovsky for the Maple Leafs and Devon Levi for the Oilers. That listing is not a confirmation.

BooksWhat the books say

The DraftKings line was EDM -180 with the total at 6.5, which de-vigs to 38.4% on the Maple Leafs.

The model and the books are basically in the same place on this one.

AvailabilityAvailability report

ESPN's injury report for the Oilers: Jason Dickinson (undisclosed, injured reserve), Mattias Ekholm (undisclosed, out), and Devon Levi (undisclosed, injured reserve).

For the Maple Leafs, ESPN had Marshall Rifai (lower body, injured reserve) and Nick Blankenburg (upper body, injured reserve).

VerdictThe call

Honest pass. The Maple Leafs were the better side on the model, but -0.3¢ at the ask is under the 3.0¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.