NBA · Preseason
Knicks vs Raptors Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 13, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Knicks 98, Raptors 148
Not graded (context only). The Knicks were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 47.5% | 23.5¢ | 24¢ | +24.0¢ | +23.5¢ | 22.3% |
| Toronto Raptors | 52.5% | 76.5¢ | 77¢ | -24.0¢ | -24.5¢ | 77.7% |
Snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
A preseason game puts the Knicks at Scotiabank Arena against the Raptors, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 14, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 0-3 for the Knicks and 1-1 for the Raptors.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
Polymarket had the Knicks at 23.5¢ and the Raptors at 76.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Knicks at 47.5%. On paper that's +23.5¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $113K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8).
MatchupThe ratings behind the number
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Knicks went 53-29 with a +6.4 net rating (117.8 offense, 111.4 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark; the Raptors went 46-36 with a +2.8 net rating (114.0 offense, 111.2 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Raptors by 1.2 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had TOR -11.5 with the total at 219.5. Strip the vig and that's 22.3% for the Knicks.
That leaves the model 25.1 points above the books on the Knicks. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
On the Knicks side, ESPN listed Jalen Brunson (rest, day-to-day), OG Anunoby (rest, day-to-day), and Karl-Anthony Towns (rest, day-to-day). All of those are rest days, not injuries.
We left out 6 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
Rest matters here: the Knicks were coming off a game the night before (Oct 12, 2026, vs the Timberwolves, lost 122-104).
VerdictLean, pass, or context?
Context only, no pick. Preseason minutes beat ratings, and this model only has ratings. Whatever the Knicks number says (+23.5¢ at the ask), it isn't graded and shouldn't be read as a play.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Knicks price moved from 24.5¢ to 23.5¢ between our Oct 13, 2026, 21:07 and Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from TOR -10.5 to TOR -11.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-13