NBA · Preseason
Warriors vs Lakers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 13, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Warriors 101, Lakers 89
Not graded (context only). The Lakers were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 44.0% | 46.5¢ | 47¢ | -2.5¢ | -3.0¢ | 46.8% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 56.0% | 53.5¢ | 54¢ | +2.5¢ | +2.0¢ | 53.2% |
Snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupMatchup and context
A preseason game puts the Warriors on a neutral floor at T-Mobile Arena against the Lakers, scheduled for 10:00 PM EDT (10:00 on Oct 14, UTC+8).
Preseason records: Warriors 2-2, Lakers 2-1.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Warriors at 46.5¢ and the Lakers at 53.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Lakers at 56.0%, which would read as +2.0¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $72K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 14, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Warriors went 37-45 with a -0.6 net rating (112.9 offense, 113.4 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark; the Lakers went 53-29 with a +1.8 net rating (117.0 offense, 115.2 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Lakers by 2.9 points with no home-court bump since it's a neutral site.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksSportsbook check
Over at DraftKings it was LAL -2.5 with the total at 229.5. No-vig, the Lakers come out at 53.2%.
The model sits 2.7 points above the no-vig book number on the Lakers.
AvailabilityWho's in, who's out
For the Warriors, ESPN had Moses Moody (knee, out), Jimmy Butler III (knee, out), Kristaps Porzingis (undisclosed, day-to-day), and Al Horford (rest, day-to-day). 1 of those is a rest day, not an injury.
On the Lakers side, ESPN listed Ziaire Williams (foot, day-to-day).
We left out 3 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictBottom line
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +2.0¢ on the Lakers is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
Our first snapshot (Oct 13, 2026, 21:07 UTC+8) had the Lakers at 61.5¢. By the last pregame snapshot (Oct 14, 2026, 06:41) they were at 53.5¢.
DraftKings went from LAL -4.5 to LAL -2.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-13