NBA · Preseason
Magic vs Grizzlies Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 7, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Magic 122, Grizzlies 118
Not graded (context only). The Magic were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 54.1% | 53.5¢ | 54¢ | +0.6¢ | +0.1¢ | 53.2% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 45.9% | 46.5¢ | 47¢ | -0.6¢ | -1.1¢ | 46.8% |
Snapshot: Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupThe setup
Magic vs Grizzlies is a preseason game, played at FedExForum with tip-off at 8:00 PM EDT (08:00 on Oct 8, UTC+8).
Preseason records: Magic 0-0, Grizzlies 1-0.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
Polymarket had the Magic at 53.5¢ and the Grizzlies at 46.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Magic at 54.1%, which would read as +0.1¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
The market had roughly $69K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8).
MatchupWhat the model sees
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Magic went 45-37 with a +0.6 net rating (112.9 offense, 112.3 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark; the Grizzlies went 25-57 with a -5.8 net rating (110.7 offense, 116.5 defense) and a 1-9 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Magic by 1.9 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Jan 18, 2026, Magic lost scoring 109; Jan 15, 2026, Magic won scoring 118.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had ORL -2.5 with the total at 234.5. Strip the vig and that's 53.2% for the Magic.
Model and sportsbooks land within a point or so of each other here.
AvailabilityAvailability report
On the Magic side, ESPN listed Izaiyah Nelson (ankle, out) and Jonathan Isaac (knee, day-to-day).
We left out 6 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictBottom line
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +0.1¢ on the Magic is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Magic price moved from 55.5¢ to 53.5¢ between our Oct 7, 2026, 21:46 and Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 snapshots (UTC+8).
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-07