NHL
Red Wings vs Canucks Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 22, 2026)
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 58.7% | 59.5¢ | 60¢ | -0.8¢ | -1.3¢ | 60.4% |
| Vancouver Canucks best side | 41.3% | 40.5¢ | 41¢ | +0.8¢ | +0.3¢ | 39.6% |
Snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 21:59 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupWhat this game is
A regular-season game puts the Red Wings at Rogers Arena against the Canucks, scheduled for 10:00 PM EDT (10:00 on Oct 23, UTC+8).
Records coming in were 3-3-3 for the Red Wings and 2-8-1 for the Canucks.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
Canucks 41.3% on the model, 40.5¢ on Polymarket. After the spread, the executable edge is +0.3¢ (it's +0.8¢ measured at the mid).
The other side, the Red Wings, traded at 59.5¢ against a model number of 58.7%.
The market had roughly $215K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 22, 2026, 21:59 UTC+8). The bar for an NHL lean is 3.0¢ at the ask.
MatchupInputs
First-listed goalies on ESPN: John Gibson for the Red Wings and Kevin Lankinen for the Canucks. That listing is not a confirmation.
BooksWhat the books say
Over at DraftKings it was DET -170 with the total at 6.5. No-vig, the Canucks come out at 39.6%.
The model sits 1.7 points above the no-vig book number on the Canucks.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
ESPN's injury report for the Red Wings: J.T. Compher (undisclosed, injured reserve).
ESPN's injury report for the Canucks: Marco Rossi (illness, day-to-day).
VerdictBottom line
We passed. +0.3¢ of executable edge on the Canucks isn't enough (the bar is 3.0¢), so this one stays off the record.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line
- FOOFIGHTER model: no model for this league
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-22