MLB · ALDS Game 5
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 10, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: White Sox 0, Guardians 2
The lean missed. The Guardians won 2-0, and it goes on the record as a loss.
No spin: the model priced the White Sox well above the market, and the market was right this time.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox lean | 48.3% | 43.5¢ | 44¢ | +4.8¢ | +4.3¢ | 43.7% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 51.7% | 56.5¢ | 57¢ | -4.8¢ | -5.3¢ | 56.3% |
Snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupWhat this game is
ALDS Game 5 puts the White Sox at Progressive Field against the Guardians, scheduled for 8:00 PM EDT (08:00 on Oct 11, UTC+8).
It's 2-2 in the series, so this one swings it. Regular-season records coming in were 84-78 for the White Sox and 85-77 for the Guardians.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
On our numbers the White Sox win this 48.3% of the time. The market said 43.5¢ at the mid and 44¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +4.8¢ vs the mid and +4.3¢ vs the ask.
The other side, the Guardians, traded at 56.5¢ against a model number of 51.7%.
Liquidity on the market was about $747K when we pulled the book (Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 UTC+8). The bar for an MLB lean is 1.8¢ at the ask.
MatchupOn the mound
On the mound: Sean Burke for the White Sox (3.34 ERA) against Gavin Williams for the Guardians (3.76 ERA). On ERA alone the White Sox have the better starter by 0.42 runs.
The pitcher adjustment in the model is worth roughly 0.9 points, in favor of the White Sox.
Worth knowing: the MLB model adjusts for the probable starters, but it does not read the posted lineup card.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had CLE -143 with the total at 7.5. Strip the vig and that's 43.7% for the White Sox. Across 30 books the server tracks (3 flagged as sharp), the no-vig number for the White Sox was 44.1%. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Guardians at 52.7% and the White Sox at 47.3%.
That leaves the model 4.6 points above the books on the White Sox. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
For the Guardians, ESPN had Andrew Walters (elbow, out).
VerdictLean, pass, or context?
This one made the cut. The White Sox side carried +4.3¢ of edge at the ask, which clears the 1.8¢ bar, with enough liquidity to matter. It's graded on the record like every other lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
The White Sox price moved from 44.5¢ to 43.5¢ between our Oct 10, 2026, 21:35 and Oct 11, 2026, 06:40 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from CLE -142 to CLE -143 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-10