MLB · NLDS Game 4
Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 7, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Brewers 3, Padres 1
Not graded (honest pass). For reference only: the side with the model's small edge, the Padres, lost.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 47.9% | 49.5¢ | 50¢ | -1.6¢ | -2.1¢ | 49.5% |
| San Diego Padres best side | 52.1% | 50.5¢ | 51¢ | +1.6¢ | +1.1¢ | 50.5% |
Snapshot: Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupThe setup
Brewers vs Padres is NLDS Game 4, played at Petco Park with first pitch at 10:00 PM EDT (10:00 on Oct 8, UTC+8).
Series state: Brewers 2, Padres 1. In a best-of-five, that means the Padres are facing elimination and the Brewers have a chance to finish it. Regular-season records: Brewers 103-59, Padres 91-71.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
The model has the Padres at 52.1%. Polymarket priced them at 50.5¢ at the mid, with the best ask at 51¢. That's +1.6¢ of edge at the mid and +1.1¢ at the ask, and the ask is the number that matters because it's what you would actually pay.
For the Brewers it's the mirror image: 47.9% on the model vs 49.5¢ on the market.
Liquidity on the market was about $1.05M when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 UTC+8). The bar for an MLB lean is 1.8¢ at the ask.
MatchupPitching and series
Listed starters: Robert Gasser for the Brewers and Walker Buehler for the Padres. Our data had no ERA attached to them, so there's no ERA comparison here.
Through 3 games in this series, the Brewers have outscored the Padres 10-9.
Worth knowing: the MLB model adjusts for the probable starters, but it does not read the posted lineup card.
BooksThe wider market
The DraftKings line was SD -112 with the total at 7.5, which de-vigs to 50.5% on the Padres. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Padres at 44.0% and the Brewers at 56.0%.
The model sits 1.6 points above the no-vig book number on the Padres.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
Nothing recent or Out-status on ESPN's injury feed for either side at snapshot time.
We left out 2 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
Honest pass. The Padres were the better side on the model, but +1.1¢ at the ask is under the 1.8¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Padres price moved from 51.5¢ to 50.5¢ between our Oct 7, 2026, 21:46 and Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from SD -115 to SD -112 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-07