NBA · Preseason
Hornets vs Celtics Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 14, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Hornets 93, Celtics 114
Not graded (context only). The Hornets were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 37.4% | 27.5¢ | 28¢ | +9.9¢ | +9.4¢ | 27.4% |
| Boston Celtics | 62.6% | 72.5¢ | 73¢ | -9.9¢ | -10.4¢ | 72.6% |
Snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 06:34 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupMatchup and context
The Hornets and the Celtics meet at TD Garden for a preseason game. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM EDT, which is 07:30 on Oct 15 in UTC+8.
Preseason records coming in were 1-1 for the Hornets and 2-0 for the Celtics.
Model vs marketPrice check
Polymarket had the Hornets at 27.5¢ and the Celtics at 72.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Hornets at 37.4%, which would read as +9.4¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $83K when we pulled the book (Oct 15, 2026, 06:34 UTC+8).
MatchupWhat the model sees
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Hornets went 44-38 with a +4.8 net rating (115.7 offense, 110.9 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark; the Celtics went 56-26 with a +7.9 net rating (117.7 offense, 109.8 defense) and a 8-2 last-10 mark.
Put together, it projects the Celtics by 6.2 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Apr 7, 2026, Hornets lost scoring 102; Mar 29, 2026, Hornets lost scoring 99; Mar 4, 2026, Hornets won scoring 118.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksWhat the books say
Over at DraftKings it was BOS -7.5 with the total at 224.5. No-vig, the Hornets come out at 27.4%.
That leaves the model 10.0 points above the books on the Hornets. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
ESPN's feed showed no recent or Out-status injuries for either team when we pulled it.
We left out 4 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictBottom line
Context only, no pick. Preseason minutes beat ratings, and this model only has ratings. Whatever the Hornets number says (+9.4¢ at the ask), it isn't graded and shouldn't be read as a play.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Hornets price held at 27.5¢ between our Oct 14, 2026, 23:34 and Oct 15, 2026, 06:34 snapshots (UTC+8).
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-14