MLB · NLDS Game 3
Brewers vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 6, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Brewers 3, Padres 4
Not graded (honest pass). For reference only: the side with the model's small edge, the Brewers, lost.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers best side | 45.7% | 44.5¢ | 45¢ | +1.2¢ | +0.7¢ | 44.6% |
| San Diego Padres | 54.3% | 55.5¢ | 56¢ | -1.2¢ | -1.7¢ | 55.4% |
Snapshot: Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupWhat this game is
The Brewers and the Padres meet at Petco Park for NLDS Game 3. First pitch is set for 9:30 PM EDT, which is 09:30 on Oct 7 in UTC+8.
The Brewers lead the series 2-0. In a best-of-five, that means the Padres are facing elimination and the Brewers have a chance to finish it. Regular-season records coming in were 103-59 for the Brewers and 91-71 for the Padres.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
On our numbers the Brewers win this 45.7% of the time. The market said 44.5¢ at the mid and 45¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +1.2¢ vs the mid and +0.7¢ vs the ask.
The other side, the Padres, traded at 55.5¢ against a model number of 54.3%.
The market had roughly $643K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8). The bar for an MLB lean is 1.8¢ at the ask.
MatchupPitching and series
Dustin May (4.70 ERA) starts for the Brewers, and Nick Pivetta (2.86 ERA) goes for the Padres. On ERA alone the Padres have the better starter by 1.84 runs.
The pitcher adjustment in the model is worth roughly 4.0 points, in favor of the Padres.
Through 2 games in this series, the Brewers have outscored the Padres 7-5.
The MLB model is pitcher-adjusted: it accounts for the listed starters, not the full batting order.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had SD -138 with the total at 7.5. Strip the vig and that's 44.6% for the Brewers. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Padres at 59.2% and the Brewers at 40.8%.
Model and sportsbooks land within a point or so of each other here.
AvailabilityWho's in, who's out
Nothing recent or Out-status on ESPN's injury feed for either side at snapshot time.
VerdictLean, pass, or context?
Honest pass. The Brewers were the better side on the model, but +0.7¢ at the ask is under the 1.8¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Brewers price held at 44.5¢ between our Oct 6, 2026, 21:47 and Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from SD -137 to SD -138 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed