76ers vs Knicks Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 20, 2026)

SetupThe setup

A regular-season game puts the 76ers at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 21, UTC+8).

Records coming in were 0-0 for the 76ers and 0-0 for the Knicks.

Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree

On our numbers the Knicks win this 61.5% of the time. The market said 61.5¢ at the mid and 62¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +0.0¢ vs the mid and -0.5¢ vs the ask.

For the 76ers it's the mirror image: 38.5% on the model vs 38.5¢ on the market.

Liquidity on the market was about $245K when we pulled the book (Oct 20, 2026, 21:17 UTC+8). NBA leans need at least 2.5¢ of edge at the ask.

MatchupWhat the model sees

The model runs on 2026-27 team ratings. In that data, the 76ers went 0-0 with a -0.2 net rating (113.6 offense, 113.7 defense) and a 0-0 last-10 mark; the Knicks went 0-0 with a +5.4 net rating (117.3 offense, 111.9 defense) and a 0-0 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Knicks by 6.9, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.

BooksSportsbook check

Over at DraftKings it was NY -4.5 with the total at 232.5. No-vig, the Knicks come out at 61.6%. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Knicks at 53.1% and the 76ers at 46.9%.

The model and the books are basically in the same place on this one.

AvailabilityAvailability report

For the 76ers, ESPN had Ariel Hukporti (achilles, out), Dominick Barlow (back, out), Tacko Fall (hip, out), Anfernee Simons (hamstring, day-to-day), Adem Bona (foot, day-to-day), and Dean Wade (ankle, day-to-day).

VerdictLean, pass, or context?

We passed. -0.5¢ of executable edge on the Knicks isn't enough (the bar is 2.5¢), so this one stays off the record.