Warriors vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 7, 2026)

SetupWhat this game is

The Warriors and the Trail Blazers meet at Moda Center for a preseason game. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM EDT, which is 10:00 on Oct 8 in UTC+8.

Preseason records: Warriors 1-1, Trail Blazers 0-0.

Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket

Polymarket had the Warriors at 19.5¢ and the Trail Blazers at 80.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Warriors at 40.6%. On paper that's +20.6¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.

Liquidity on the market was about $54K when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 06:38 UTC+8).

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Warriors went 37-45 with a -0.6 net rating (112.9 offense, 113.4 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark; the Trail Blazers went 42-40 with a -0.3 net rating (111.7 offense, 112.0 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Trail Blazers by 4.6, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.

BooksWhat the books say

Over at DraftKings it was POR -13.5 with the total at 216.5. No-vig, the Warriors come out at 19.6%.

So the model is 21.0 points higher on the Warriors than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.

AvailabilityInjuries and availability

On the Warriors side, ESPN listed Moses Moody (knee, out), Jimmy Butler III (knee, out), Kristaps Porzingis (undisclosed, day-to-day), Draymond Green (rest, day-to-day), Yaxel Lendeborg (rest, day-to-day), De'Anthony Melton (rest, day-to-day), Georges Niang (rest, day-to-day), and Gary Payton II (rest, day-to-day), plus 3 more. 8 of those are rest days, not injuries.

For the Trail Blazers, ESPN had Shaedon Sharpe (knee, out).

We left out 1 older ESPN note that referred to a different game day.

Rest matters here: the Warriors were coming off a game the night before (Oct 6, 2026, vs the Lakers, won 124-98).

VerdictBottom line

This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Warriors number (+20.6¢ at the ask) is background only.

Line movementHow the price moved

The Warriors price held at 19.5¢ between our Oct 7, 2026, 21:46 and Oct 8, 2026, 06:39 snapshots (UTC+8).