MLB · NLDS Game 3
Dodgers vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 6, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Dodgers 3, Braves 1
Not graded (honest pass). For reference only: the side with the model's small edge, the Braves, lost.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 47.5% | 49.5¢ | 50¢ | -2.0¢ | -2.5¢ | 49.9% |
| Atlanta Braves best side | 52.5% | 50.5¢ | 51¢ | +2.0¢ | +1.5¢ | 50.1% |
Snapshot: Oct 6, 2026, 23:17 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupThe setup
Dodgers vs Braves is NLDS Game 3, played at Truist Park with first pitch at 6:00 PM EDT (06:00 on Oct 7, UTC+8).
It's 1-1 in the series, so this one swings it. Regular-season records coming in were 100-62 for the Dodgers and 94-68 for the Braves.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
The model has the Braves at 52.5%. Polymarket priced them at 50.5¢ at the mid, with the best ask at 51¢. That's +2.0¢ of edge at the mid and +1.5¢ at the ask, and the ask is the number that matters because it's what you would actually pay.
The other side, the Dodgers, traded at 49.5¢ against a model number of 47.5%.
The market had roughly $733K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 6, 2026, 23:17 UTC+8). MLB leans need at least 1.8¢ of edge at the ask.
MatchupPitching and series
It's Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Chris Sale. By ERA that's 2.53 against 2.16. On ERA alone the Braves have the better starter by 0.37 runs.
The pitcher adjustment in the model is worth roughly 0.8 points, in favor of the Braves.
Worth knowing: the MLB model adjusts for the probable starters, but it does not read the posted lineup card.
BooksWhat the books say
Over at DraftKings it was ATL -110 with the total at 6.5. No-vig, the Braves come out at 50.1%. Across 29 books the server tracks (3 flagged as sharp), the no-vig number for the Braves was 50.0%. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Braves at 53.6% and the Dodgers at 46.4%.
The model sits 2.4 points above the no-vig book number on the Braves.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
On the Braves side, ESPN listed Bryce Elder (knee, 15-day IL) and Martin Perez (back, 15-day IL).
ESPN's injury report for the Dodgers: Blake Treinen (shoulder, 15-day IL).
VerdictLean, pass, or context?
Honest pass. The Braves were the better side on the model, but +1.5¢ at the ask is under the 1.8¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Braves price held at 50.5¢ between our Oct 6, 2026, 21:47 and Oct 6, 2026, 23:17 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from LAD -110 to ATL -110 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed