NBA · Preseason
Bucks vs Hornets Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 11, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Bucks 90, Hornets 105
Not graded (context only). The Hornets were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they won. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 29.8% | 43.5¢ | 44¢ | -13.7¢ | -14.2¢ | 41.7% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 70.2% | 56.5¢ | 57¢ | +13.7¢ | +13.2¢ | 58.3% |
Snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
Bucks vs Hornets is a preseason game, played at Spectrum Center with tip-off at 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 12, UTC+8).
Preseason records coming in were 1-1 for the Bucks and 0-1 for the Hornets.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Bucks at 43.5¢ and the Hornets at 56.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Hornets at 70.2%. On paper that's +13.2¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $115K when we pulled the book (Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8).
MatchupThe ratings behind the number
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Bucks went 32-50 with a -6.2 net rating (111.3 offense, 117.5 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark; the Hornets went 44-38 with a +4.8 net rating (115.7 offense, 110.9 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.
The projected margin comes out to Hornets by 10.3, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.
Most recent meetings in the data: Jan 2, 2026, Bucks won scoring 122; Dec 29, 2025, Bucks won scoring 123; Nov 14, 2025, Bucks won scoring 147.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksWhat the books say
The DraftKings line was CHA -3.5 with the total at 222.5, which de-vigs to 58.3% on the Hornets.
That leaves the model 11.9 points above the books on the Hornets. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityAvailability report
For the Hornets, ESPN had Grayson Allen (knee, day-to-day) and Christian Anderson (ankle, day-to-day).
ESPN's injury report for the Bucks: Brayden Burries (coach's decision, day-to-day).
We left out 2 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.
VerdictThe call
This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Hornets number (+13.2¢ at the ask) is background only.
Line movementHow the price moved
The Hornets price moved from 59.5¢ to 56.5¢ between our Oct 11, 2026, 21:39 and Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 snapshots (UTC+8).
DraftKings went from CHA -4.5 to CHA -3.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-11