Wizards vs Knicks Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 8, 2026)

SetupMatchup and context

A preseason game puts the Wizards at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, scheduled for 7:30 PM EDT (07:30 on Oct 9, UTC+8).

Preseason records: Wizards 0-0, Knicks 0-1.

Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket

Polymarket had the Wizards at 30.5¢ and the Knicks at 69.5¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Knicks at 79.0%, which would read as +9.0¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.

The market had roughly $27K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 8, 2026, 21:51 UTC+8).

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Wizards went 17-65 with a -11.6 net rating (109.1 offense, 120.6 defense) and a 0-10 last-10 mark; the Knicks went 53-29 with a +6.4 net rating (117.8 offense, 111.4 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.

Put together, it projects the Knicks by 15.9 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.

BooksWhat the books say

Over at DraftKings it was NY -6.5 with the total at 226.5. No-vig, the Knicks come out at 69.1%.

That leaves the model 9.9 points above the books on the Knicks. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.

AvailabilityInjuries and availability

On the Wizards side, ESPN listed Jamir Watkins (knee, out) and Tristan Vukcevic (hip, out).

We left out 2 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.

VerdictThe call

This is a no-pick game. Preseason NBA is excluded from leans because the last-season model can't see rest days or rotation experiments, which is most of what decides these games. The Knicks number (+9.0¢ at the ask) is background only.