Nets vs Hornets Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 6, 2026)

Transparency noteLabeled as a pick, excluded from the record

Heads up on Oct 6, 2026: our X post for that night labeled the Hornets as "Top Picks" (the card said LEANS). That was an NBA preseason game, and the record rules exclude preseason, so it is not in the W-L.

Result: Hornets lost 90-124 (miss). Counting both labeled picks from that post, they would be 1-1. Full note on the record page.

One more fact for completeness: the morning update post before tip-off dropped the Hornets lean after late scratches. The 1-1 above counts the original labels anyway.

Read the full note on the record page

SetupMatchup and context

A preseason game puts the Nets at Spectrum Center against the Hornets, scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (07:00 on Oct 7, UTC+8).

Preseason records: Nets 0-0, Hornets 0-0.

Model vs marketPrice check

Polymarket had the Nets at 48.5¢ and the Hornets at 51.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Hornets at 74.8%. On paper that's +22.8¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.

The market had roughly $68K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8).

MatchupThe ratings behind the number

The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Nets went 20-62 with a -10.1 net rating (106.8 offense, 116.9 defense) and a 3-7 last-10 mark; the Hornets went 44-38 with a +4.8 net rating (115.7 offense, 110.9 defense) and a 6-4 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Hornets by 13.1, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

Most recent meetings in the data: Mar 31, 2026, Nets lost scoring 86; Dec 1, 2025, Nets won scoring 116; Oct 22, 2025, Nets lost scoring 117.

Big caveat: the NBA model has no idea who suits up. It's ratings in, probability out.

BooksWhat the books say

Over at DraftKings it was CHA -2.5 with the total at 212.5. No-vig, the Hornets come out at 55.1%.

That leaves the model 19.7 points above the books on the Hornets. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.

AvailabilityWho's in, who's out

For the Nets, ESPN had Mikel Brown Jr. (ankle, day-to-day) and Joshua Jefferson (back, day-to-day).

ESPN's injury report for the Hornets: Kylan Boswell (knee, day-to-day), Christian Anderson (ankle, day-to-day), and Brandon Miller (leg, day-to-day).

We left out 1 older ESPN note that referred to a different game day.

VerdictBottom line

Context only, no pick. Preseason minutes beat ratings, and this model only has ratings. Whatever the Hornets number says (+22.8¢ at the ask), it isn't graded and shouldn't be read as a play.

Line movementHow the price moved

The Hornets price moved from 65.5¢ to 51.5¢ between our Oct 6, 2026, 21:47 and Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 snapshots (UTC+8).

DraftKings went from CHA -7.5 to CHA -2.5 over the same window.