Grizzlies vs Bulls Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 9, 2026)

SetupWhat this game is

A preseason game puts the Grizzlies at United Center against the Bulls, scheduled for 8:00 PM EDT (08:00 on Oct 10, UTC+8).

Preseason records coming in were 1-1 for the Grizzlies and 1-0 for the Bulls.

Model vs marketPrice check

Polymarket had the Grizzlies at 43¢ and the Bulls at 57¢. Our NBA model, still running on last season's ratings, had the Bulls at 59.2%, which would read as +1.2¢ vs the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.

Liquidity on the market was about $42K when we pulled the book (Oct 9, 2026, 22:00 UTC+8).

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Grizzlies went 25-57 with a -5.8 net rating (110.7 offense, 116.5 defense) and a 1-9 last-10 mark; the Bulls went 31-51 with a -5.0 net rating (111.5 offense, 116.5 defense) and a 2-8 last-10 mark.

Put together, it projects the Bulls by 4.5 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

Most recent meetings in the data: Mar 28, 2026, Grizzlies won scoring 125; Mar 16, 2026, Grizzlies lost scoring 107.

None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.

BooksSportsbook check

Over at DraftKings it was CHI -3.5 with the total at 239.5. No-vig, the Bulls come out at 57.2%.

The model sits 2.0 points above the no-vig book number on the Bulls.

AvailabilityWho's in, who's out

ESPN's injury report for the Bulls: Nic Claxton (hamstring, day-to-day).

We left out 5 older ESPN notes that referred to a different game day.

VerdictLean, pass, or context?

No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +1.2¢ on the Bulls is shown for transparency, not as a lean.

Line movementHow the price moved

The Bulls price held at 57¢ between our Oct 9, 2026, 21:55 and Oct 9, 2026, 22:00 snapshots (UTC+8).