MLB · NLCS Game 2
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 12, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Dodgers 4, Brewers 7
The lean hit. The Brewers won 7-4.
Nice, but one game is one game. The edge is the claim; the result is mostly noise until the sample gets bigger.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 47.7% | 54.5¢ | 55¢ | -6.8¢ | -7.3¢ | 54.9% |
| Milwaukee Brewers lean | 52.3% | 45.5¢ | 46¢ | +6.8¢ | +6.3¢ | 45.1% |
Snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 21:50 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupWhat this game is
NLCS Game 2 puts the Dodgers at American Family Field against the Brewers, scheduled for 5:00 PM EDT (05:00 on Oct 13, UTC+8).
The Brewers are up 1-0 in the series. Regular-season records coming in were 100-62 for the Dodgers and 103-59 for the Brewers.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
The model has the Brewers at 52.3%. Polymarket priced them at 45.5¢ at the mid, with the best ask at 46¢. That's +6.8¢ of edge at the mid and +6.3¢ at the ask, and the ask is the number that matters because it's what you would actually pay.
For the Dodgers it's the mirror image: 47.7% on the model vs 54.5¢ on the market.
Liquidity on the market was about $388K when we pulled the book (Oct 12, 2026, 21:50 UTC+8). The bar for an MLB lean is 1.8¢ at the ask.
MatchupOn the mound
Listed starters: Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers and Logan Henderson for the Brewers. Our data had no ERA attached to them, so there's no ERA comparison here.
Through 1 games in this series, the Brewers have outscored the Dodgers 2-1.
Worth knowing: the MLB model adjusts for the probable starters, but it does not read the posted lineup card.
BooksThe wider market
Over at DraftKings it was LAD -135 with the total at 6.5. No-vig, the Brewers come out at 45.1%. The wider book consensus (26 books (3 flagged as sharp)) had the Brewers at 44.8% no-vig. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Brewers at 56.2% and the Dodgers at 43.8%.
So the model is 7.2 points higher on the Brewers than the no-vig book number. When the gap is that big and the books agree with Polymarket, the model is the outlier, and that's worth knowing before reading too much into the edge.
AvailabilityInjuries and availability
ESPN's feed showed no recent or Out-status injuries for either team when we pulled it.
VerdictThe call
This one made the cut. The Brewers side carried +6.3¢ of edge at the ask, which clears the 1.8¢ bar, with enough liquidity to matter. It's graded on the record like every other lean.
To be clear about what kind of lean this is: the sportsbooks sided with Polymarket, so this is the model against the consensus. Set expectations accordingly.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-12