Raptors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 25, 2026)

SetupWhat this game is

The Raptors and the Timberwolves meet at Target Center for a regular-season game. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM EDT, which is 07:00 on Oct 26 in UTC+8.

Records coming in were 2-0 for the Raptors and 2-0 for the Timberwolves.

Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket

On our numbers the Timberwolves win this 52.3% of the time. The market said 50.5¢ at the mid and 51¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +1.8¢ vs the mid and +1.3¢ vs the ask.

The other side, the Raptors, traded at 49.5¢ against a model number of 47.7%.

Liquidity on the market was about $177K when we pulled the book (Oct 25, 2026, 21:19 UTC+8). The bar for an NBA lean is 2.5¢ at the ask.

MatchupInside the model

The model runs on 2026-27 team ratings. In that data, the Raptors went 2-0 with a +4.4 net rating (113.7 offense, 109.3 defense) and a 2-0 last-10 mark; the Timberwolves went 2-0 with a +4.6 net rating (115.3 offense, 110.7 defense) and a 2-0 last-10 mark.

The projected margin comes out to Timberwolves by 3.8, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.

BooksSportsbook check

The DraftKings line was MIN -1.5 with the total at 230.5, which de-vigs to 51.1% on the Timberwolves. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Timberwolves at 60.3% and the Raptors at 39.7%.

The model and the books are basically in the same place on this one.

AvailabilityInjuries and availability

For the Timberwolves, ESPN had Donte DiVincenzo (achilles, out).

On the Raptors side, ESPN listed Nate Bittle (foot, out).

VerdictBottom line

No lean. The best the model could find was +1.3¢ on the Timberwolves at the ask, short of the 2.5¢ needed. Passing on thin edges is part of the process, not a dodge.