NBA · Preseason
Pelicans vs Thunder Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 6, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Pelicans 116, Thunder 110
Not graded (context only). The Thunder were the side where the model's raw number sat above the price, and they lost. Results here don't go on the record either way.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 28.2% | 50.5¢ | 51¢ | -22.3¢ | -22.8¢ | 48.9% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 71.8% | 49.5¢ | 50¢ | +22.3¢ | +21.8¢ | 51.1% |
Snapshot: Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share. NBA model uses last season's ratings and is not lineup-aware.
SetupWhat this game is
Pelicans vs Thunder is a preseason game, played on a neutral floor at BOK Center with tip-off at 8:00 PM EDT (08:00 on Oct 7, UTC+8).
Preseason records: Pelicans 0-0, Thunder 0-0.
Model vs marketModel vs Polymarket
Polymarket had the Pelicans at 50.5¢ and the Thunder at 49.5¢. The last-season NBA model put the Thunder at 71.8%. On paper that's +21.8¢ at the ask. In this spot that number is context, not a signal.
Liquidity on the market was about $87K when we pulled the book (Oct 7, 2026, 06:32 UTC+8).
MatchupInside the model
The model runs on 2025-26 team ratings. In that data, the Pelicans went 26-56 with a -4.4 net rating (112.5 offense, 116.9 defense) and a 1-9 last-10 mark; the Thunder went 64-18 with a +11.0 net rating (117.4 offense, 106.4 defense) and a 7-3 last-10 mark.
The projected margin comes out to Thunder by 11.2 with no home-court bump since it's a neutral site.
None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.
BooksThe wider market
DraftKings had OKC -1.5 with the total at 223.5. Strip the vig and that's 51.1% for the Thunder.
That leaves the model 20.7 points above the books on the Thunder. The market and the sportsbooks are telling the same story here; the model is the one going against it.
AvailabilityAvailability report
ESPN's injury report for the Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rest, day-to-day), Jalen Williams (rest, day-to-day), Isaiah Hartenstein (rest, day-to-day), Chet Holmgren (rest, day-to-day), Alex Caruso (rest, day-to-day), Cason Wallace (rest, day-to-day), Nikola Topic (back, day-to-day), and Thomas Sorber (knee, day-to-day), plus 1 more. 6 of those are rest days, not injuries.
VerdictLean, pass, or context?
No pick. NBA preseason is context only by policy: the model runs on last season's ratings and doesn't know who's playing, and preseason rotations make that gap huge. The raw +21.8¢ on the Thunder is shown for transparency, not as a lean.
Line movementHow the price moved
Our first snapshot (Oct 6, 2026, 21:47 UTC+8) had the Thunder at 58.5¢. By the last pregame snapshot (Oct 7, 2026, 06:32) they were at 49.5¢.
DraftKings went from OKC -3.5 to OKC -1.5 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: last-season team ratings, not lineup-aware