Bulls vs Celtics Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 26, 2026)

SetupThe setup

Bulls vs Celtics is a regular-season game, played at TD Garden with tip-off at 7:30 PM EDT (07:30 on Oct 27, UTC+8).

Records: Bulls 1-2, Celtics 1-1.

Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree

The model has the Bulls at 18.3%. Polymarket priced them at 13.5¢ at the mid, with the best ask at 14¢. That's +4.8¢ of edge at the mid and +4.3¢ at the ask, and the ask is the number that matters because it's what you would actually pay.

For the Celtics it's the mirror image: 81.7% on the model vs 86.5¢ on the market.

The market had roughly $168K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 26, 2026, 21:28 UTC+8). NBA leans need at least 2.5¢ of edge at the ask.

MatchupThe ratings behind the number

The model runs on 2026-27 team ratings. In that data, the Bulls went 1-2 with a -5.3 net rating (110.9 offense, 116.2 defense) and a 1-2 last-10 mark; the Celtics went 1-1 with a +5.9 net rating (116.9 offense, 110.9 defense) and a 1-1 last-10 mark.

Put together, it projects the Celtics by 10.9 points, and that includes 3.5 points of home court.

None of that knows who is actually playing tonight. The NBA model is not lineup-aware.

BooksThe wider market

The DraftKings line was BOS -14.5 with the total at 232.5, which de-vigs to 15.3% on the Bulls. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Celtics at 84.4% and the Bulls at 15.6%.

The model sits 3.0 points above the no-vig book number on the Bulls.

AvailabilityWho's in, who's out

ESPN's injury report for the Celtics: Devin Carter (illness, out).

ESPN's injury report for the Bulls: Nic Claxton (hamstring, out), Noa Essengue (head, day-to-day), and Patrick Williams (groin, day-to-day).

VerdictLean, pass, or context?

Honest pass. The Bulls were the better side on the model, but +4.3¢ at the ask is under the 2.5¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.