MLB · NLCS Game 1
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Pick (Oct 11, 2026)
Post-gameFinal: Dodgers 1, Brewers 2
Not graded (honest pass). For reference only: the side with the model's small edge, the Brewers, won.
Model vs marketThe numbers
| Team | Model | mid | Ask | Edge vs mid | Edge vs ask | DraftKings no-vig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 47.7% | 49.5¢ | 50¢ | -1.8¢ | -2.3¢ | 50.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers best side | 52.3% | 50.5¢ | 51¢ | +1.8¢ | +1.3¢ | 49.5% |
Snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8 (last pregame data pull). Edge = model probability minus price, in cents per $1 share.
SetupThe setup
NLCS Game 1 puts the Dodgers at American Family Field against the Brewers, scheduled for 8:00 PM EDT (08:00 on Oct 12, UTC+8).
Regular-season records coming in were 100-62 for the Dodgers and 103-59 for the Brewers.
Model vs marketWhere the model and the market disagree
On our numbers the Brewers win this 52.3% of the time. The market said 50.5¢ at the mid and 51¢ to buy, so the edge works out to +1.8¢ vs the mid and +1.3¢ vs the ask.
The other side, the Dodgers, traded at 49.5¢ against a model number of 47.7%.
The market had roughly $938K of liquidity when we pulled the book (Oct 12, 2026, 06:41 UTC+8). MLB leans need at least 1.8¢ of edge at the ask.
MatchupStarting pitchers
Listed starters: Tarik Skubal for the Dodgers and Jacob Misiorowski for the Brewers. Our data had no ERA attached to them, so there's no ERA comparison here.
Worth knowing: the MLB model adjusts for the probable starters, but it does not read the posted lineup card.
BooksThe wider market
The DraftKings line was LAD -112 with the total at 6, which de-vigs to 49.5% on the Brewers. Across 30 books the server tracks (3 flagged as sharp), the no-vig number for the Brewers was 49.4%. ESPN's matchup predictor had the Brewers at 58.2% and the Dodgers at 41.8%.
The model sits 2.8 points above the no-vig book number on the Brewers.
AvailabilityWho's in, who's out
Nothing recent or Out-status on ESPN's injury feed for either side at snapshot time.
VerdictThe call
Honest pass. The Brewers were the better side on the model, but +1.3¢ at the ask is under the 1.8¢ bar. Below the bar, spread and noise eat most of the edge, so passing is the call.
Line movementHow the price moved
Our first snapshot (Oct 11, 2026, 21:39 UTC+8) had the Brewers at 51.5¢. By the last pregame snapshot (Oct 12, 2026, 06:41) they were at 50.5¢.
DraftKings went from MIL -113 to LAD -112 over the same window.
MoreRelated pages
SourcesWhere these numbers come from
- Polymarket market: order book (bid, ask, mid) and liquidity
- ESPN game page: schedule, venue, injuries, DraftKings line, final score
- FOOFIGHTER model: MLB server signals (pitcher-adjusted)
- MLB Stats API: probable starters and ERA via the server intel feed
- Original model log post on X: published 2026-10-11