Model log
Model picks for Oct 11, 2026
0-0Leans W-L
0Formal leans
1Honest passes
3Context only
4 games made our published slate for Sunday, Oct 11, 2026 (MLB and NBA): 0 formal leans, 1 honest pass, and 3 context-only games.
No formal leans this day, so nothing here is graded. Finals are listed for reference.
MLBMLB games
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Dodgers vs BrewersHonest pass LAD 1, MIL 2NLCS Game 1 · Brewers model 52.3% vs 50.5¢, +1.3¢ at ask
NBANBA games
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Magic vs CavaliersContext only ORL 105, CLE 119Preseason
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Bucks vs HornetsContext only MIL 90, CHA 105Preseason
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Bulls vs NuggetsContext only CHI 128, DEN 133Preseason
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Model vs Polymarket numbers before the games, graded results after. Losses included.
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How the model works
Probability vs the Polymarket ask, the bar for a lean, and why a pass stays off the record.
Read the methodologyNot financial or betting advice. This is model output shared for information and entertainment. Prediction markets and sports betting carry real risk of loss. 21+ only (or the legal age where you live), check your local laws, and play responsibly. If gambling stops being fun, get help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (US).
FOOFIGHTER Picks. Model output vs Polymarket prices. No guarantees.