Model log
Model picks for Oct 6, 2026
6 games made our published slate for Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026 (MLB and NBA): 0 formal leans, 2 honest passes, and 4 context-only games.
No formal leans this day, so nothing here is graded. Finals are listed for reference.
Heads up on Oct 6, 2026: our X post for that night labeled the Nuggets and the Hornets as "Top Picks" (the card said LEANS). Those were NBA preseason games, and the record rules exclude preseason, so they are not in the W-L.
Result: Nuggets won 117-106 (hit); Hornets lost 90-124 (miss). Counting both labeled picks from that post, they would be 1-1. Full note on the record page.
One more fact for completeness: the morning update post before tip-off dropped the Hornets lean after late scratches. The 1-1 above counts the original labels anyway.
MLBMLB games
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Dodgers vs BravesHonest pass LAD 3, ATL 1NLDS Game 3 · Braves model 52.5% vs 50.5¢, +1.5¢ at ask
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Brewers vs PadresHonest pass MIL 3, SD 4NLDS Game 3 · Brewers model 45.7% vs 44.5¢, +0.7¢ at ask
NBANBA games
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Nets vs HornetsContext only BKN 124, CHA 90Preseason
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Pelicans vs ThunderContext only NO 116, OKC 110Preseason
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Nuggets vs JazzContext only DEN 117, UTAH 106Preseason
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Lakers vs WarriorsContext only LAL 98, GS 124Preseason
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Model vs Polymarket numbers before the games, graded results after. Losses included.
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Probability vs the Polymarket ask, the bar for a lean, and why a pass stays off the record.
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