Model log

Model picks for Oct 7, 2026

1-1Leans W-L
2Formal leans
2Honest passes
5Context only

9 games made our published slate for Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026 (MLB and NBA): 2 formal leans, 2 honest passes, and 5 context-only games.

The formal leans went 1-1. Passes and context games are listed with their finals but never count toward the record.

MLBMLB games

  • Guardians vs White Sox
    ALDS Game 3 · White Sox model 53.6% vs 51.5¢, +1.6¢ at ask
    Honest pass CLE 9, CHW 3
  • Dodgers vs Braves
    NLDS Game 4 · Braves model 51.5% vs 41.5¢, +9.5¢ at ask
    Lean Miss LAD 4, ATL 1
  • Rays vs Yankees
    ALDS Game 3 · Rays model 47.4% vs 39.5¢, +7.4¢ at ask
    Lean Hit TB 4, NYY 3
  • Brewers vs Padres
    NLDS Game 4 · Padres model 52.1% vs 50.5¢, +1.1¢ at ask
    Honest pass MIL 3, SD 1

NBANBA games

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Model vs Polymarket numbers before the games, graded results after. Losses included.

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How the model works

Probability vs the Polymarket ask, the bar for a lean, and why a pass stays off the record.

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FOOFIGHTER Picks. Model output vs Polymarket prices. No guarantees.
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