Model log
Model picks for Oct 19, 2026
0-1Leans W-L
1Formal leans
1Honest passes
0Context only
5 games made our published slate for Monday, Oct 19, 2026 (MLB and NHL): 1 formal lean, 1 honest pass, and 0 context-only games.
The formal leans went 0-1. Passes and context games are listed with their finals but never count toward the record.
MLBMLB games
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Guardians vs RaysLean Miss CLE 3, TB 7ALCS Game 6 · Guardians model 47.4% vs 41.5¢, +5.4¢ at ask
NHLNHL games
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Ducks vs RangersHonest pass ANA 2, NYR 5Ducks model 42.7% vs 41.5¢, +0.7¢ at ask
- Lean withdrawn COL 2, PHI 3
- Lean withdrawn SJ 1, TOR 3
- Lean withdrawn PIT 4, UTA 5
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Model vs Polymarket numbers before the games, graded results after. Losses included.
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Probability vs the Polymarket ask, the bar for a lean, and why a pass stays off the record.
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FOOFIGHTER Picks. Model output vs Polymarket prices. No guarantees.